Monday, May 31, 2010

F&O Holding summary : 31-May-2010

F&O Holding summary as on 31-May-2010

Entry dateScripActionReasonEntry PriceStop LossExit dateExit priceReasonClose%
28-May-2010HDFC BUY 315 +CROSS 2777.602708.162776.9-0.03
28-May-2010IFCI BUY 315 +CROSS 52.8051.4854.753.69
28-May-2010IFCI BUY 534 +CROSS 52.8051.4854.753.69
28-May-2010INFOSYSTCH BUY 315 +CROSS 2669.002602.282657-0.45
28-May-2010RELIANCE BUY 315 +CROSS 1040.001014.001047.10.68
28-May-2010SBIN BUY 534 +CROSS 2218.252162.792248.11.35

F&O Crossover : 31-May-2010

F&O Crossover as on 31-May-2010

Entry dateScripActionReasonEntry PriceStop Loss
31-May-2010AXISBANKBUY315 +Cross1227.101196.42
31-May-2010AXISBANKBUY534 +Cross1227.101196.42
31-May-2010CAIRNBUY315 +Cross300.15292.65
31-May-2010HDFCBUY534 +Cross2776.902707.48
31-May-2010MINIFTYBUY315 +Cross5058.254931.79
31-May-2010NIFTYBUY315 +Cross5059.754933.26

Cash Holding summary : 31-May-2010

Cash Holding summary as on 31-May-2010

Entry dateScripActionReasonEntry PriceStop LossExit dateExit priceReasonClose%
27-May-2010HDFC BUY 315 +CROSS 2782.052712.5027850.11
28-May-2010HDFC BUY 315 +CROSS 2786.902717.232785-0.07
28-May-2010HDFC BUY 534 +CROSS 2786.902717.232785-0.07
28-May-2010IFCI BUY 315 +CROSS 52.4051.0954.453.91
28-May-2010IFCI BUY 534 +CROSS 52.4051.0954.453.91
28-May-2010INFOSYSTCH BUY 315 +CROSS 2679.202612.222657.6-0.81
28-May-2010RELIANCE BUY 315 +CROSS 1038.101012.151045.50.71
28-May-2010SBIN BUY 534 +CROSS 2234.152178.3022661.43
28-May-2010TCS BUY 315 +CROSS 751.00732.23743-1.07

Cash Crossover : 31-May-2010

Cash Crossover as on 31-May-2010

Entry dateScripActionReasonEntry PriceStop Loss
31-May-2010AXISBANKBUY315 +Cross1233.501202.66
31-May-2010CAIRNBUY315 +Cross300.00292.50
31-May-2010HDFCBANKBUY315 +Cross1889.001841.78
31-May-2010SBINBUY315 +Cross2266.002209.35
31-May-2010SESAGOABUY315 +Cross380.75371.23

Credits

All credit Goes to Tradewithhunter & and other member in traderji forum, who pioneered the development of trading strategy.

SH 315 strategy was originally developed by Tradewith Hunter, i am just his follower, using ,my knowledge i developed to application to track 315, so that will useful to everyone,


i am sorry by just curiosity and for my own tracking, i posted this blog, i never thought people will follow this, i forgot to add credits.


Please Click to click to learn more about SH315


http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/30428-shs-315-strategy-how-use-if-effectively.html

Friday, May 28, 2010

F&O Crossover : 28-May-2010

F&O Crossover as on 28-May-2010

Entry dateScripActionReasonEntry PriceStop Loss
28-May-2010HDFCBUY315 +Cross2777.602708.16
28-May-2010IFCIBUY315 +Cross52.8051.48
28-May-2010IFCIBUY534 +Cross52.8051.48
28-May-2010INFOSYSTCHBUY315 +Cross2669.002602.28
28-May-2010RELIANCEBUY315 +Cross1040.001014.00
28-May-2010SBINBUY534 +Cross2218.252162.79

Cash Crossover : 28-May-2010

Cash Crossover as on 28-May-2010

Entry dateScripActionReasonEntry PriceStop Loss
28-May-2010HDFCBUY315 +Cross2786.902717.23
28-May-2010HDFCBUY534 +Cross2786.902717.23
28-May-2010IFCIBUY315 +Cross52.4051.09
28-May-2010IFCIBUY534 +Cross52.4051.09
28-May-2010INFOSYSTCHBUY315 +Cross2679.202612.22
28-May-2010RELIANCEBUY315 +Cross1038.101012.15
28-May-2010SBINBUY534 +Cross2234.152178.30
28-May-2010TCSBUY315 +Cross751.00732.23

Tuesday, May 4, 2010

For Stop Losses and protecting your capital

(C) content copied from Traderji Forum Credit to SH source link http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/30428-shs-315-strategy-how-use-if-effectively.html 

Hi Friends,

I will start sharing the P&L etc once I complete my entire description of certain rules to make it more effective.

We have talked about the basics & 'effective adds'. The second bit i want to explain under 'protecting capital' is 'effective SLs'.

Learning to use effective SLs is the simplest yet the most powerful piece in 'Protecting Capital'.

The way I use my SLs under this strategy is that once my initial position has moved in more than 100 points profit, I use my entry point as my SL.

Though this sounds very naive to do that but it serves two very important functions:

1. First of all it avoids whipsaws. Ideally, in a good trade, when we make an entry based on 315, I would expect our ADD to happen once my initial position is in good profit. This means that after the initial entry, the market has trended in the direction of our position, corrected to touch 15 EMA and gave us an 'ADD' without touching our initial entry point. THIS IS A STRONG SIGN OF A TRENDING MARKET HENCE MAKES OUR TRADE MORE POWERFUL.

2. It also means that we dont let a winning position become a losing one, a basic fundamental of a successful swing trader.

Please remember : If our initial entry point (or SL) is hit, we enter again based on 'effective ADD' rules i.e previous day highs/lows breached and 3 EMA still in favour. This might mean we end up shorting below our earlier entry point but thats fine.

Please take the current example now, I shorted at 4190, booked at 3930, re-entered shorts at 4040. Now when 4190 was hit again on 15/07/2009 I exited my shorts and waitied for a 'ADD' signal to get generated. 315 stayed bearish even when markets went upto 4236 close on 15/07 & 16/7 (hence no longs) but it didnt generate any 'ADD short' signal by breaching previous days lows.

Hence I couldnt short again once my 4190 SL was hit. so basically made 110 points in short on one lot.

And then on 17th July closing at around 4392 when the 315 bullish signal was confirmed I entered fresh longs. Market has closed at 4510 today however till day end 3 EMA was not touched hence i booked profits at 4508 levels. I am waiting for 3 EMA to be touched again to jump into longs again with SL 4392 (my initial entry point since it has swung up more than 100 points now).

I have now explained all my rules making 315 more effective, please use them as per your money management rules and hopefully you all will make money. to summarise the rules:

1. Build up on winning positions gradually by following 'ADD' rules.
2. Exit on candles where 3 EMA is not touching the candle body using 'effective profit booking' rule.
3. Never let a winning position become a losing one... use 'effective SL' rule.


Cheers

Explanation with Chart

I will talk you through the chart.

Please see first red up arrow .. a buy on 16th March, before the days close you can see 3 EMA clearly above 15 EMA you take your first lot long position before market closes on 16th March ie around 2770 (please note how we need to wait till the last moment of EOD candle close to ensure we have a confirmed crossover on EOD charts).

Wow - we have a secular bull swing going from that day which takes markets to 3500 levels.

Please see second red up arrow on 28th April. Markets corrects on this day and EOD candle touches (or gets very close to) 15 EMA. This is the point we 'Add' one more lot long just before th day closes at around 3350 levels. Now the fact is that our average price has become 3060 for 2 lots so even if next day we again have a down day and 3 EMA crosses and closes below 15 EMA we will still be able to get out at a level above 3060 and hence book profits. See how even after our 'Add' we have not increased our risk overall.

Wow - but markets go up next day and both our positions are in profits.

NOW, please see 4th May candle... Nifty gapped up by 5% and closed at 3658.This is our Exit candle since 3 EMA is not touching the body candle at all.

So we basically book both lots before market closes on 4th May at around 3650. So we have made 590 points profit per lot or total 1180 points profit.

We now want to renter again with 2 lots whenever EOD candle touches 3 EMA again. If you see on 6th May that happens and we again go long 2 lots before market close at around 3630.

Now, please see the third up arrow. Markets keep correcting and EOD candle again touches 15 EMA on 11th May. This is where we 'add' our 3rd lot at around 3550. NOw we hold 3 lots NF long with avg price 3600. We have already booked 1180 points so that is still acting as a buffer we have in case markets go down next day and our SAR is hit. We will still have overall profits.

But as luck had it .. our SAR is not hit since markets are rangebound waiting for election results.

Now please see 19th May Candle .. opened way beyond 3 EMA so clearly a profit booking zone right at the open. It was a volatile day, opened at 4600 and kept crashing to 4200 ...assume we exited at 4300. We made 700 points profit per lot on 3 lots or total 2100 points profit. Add that to 1190 points profit and we have made 3390 points profit.

As you can see, we reenter again after a couple of days as marked on charts.... Finally on 18th June we exit all longs and enter shorts (again 1 lot as start).

We add shorts at 25th June... we have a small whipsaw on a day before budget but after budget we get another sell signal and now we are short.

I will cover one more important aspect about 'Protecting Capital' in my next post. Please post any questions here in the meantime.

Cheers
Attached Images

For Entry, Pryramiding & Exits (profit booking) and re-entry rules

(C) content copied from Traderji Forum Credit to SH source link http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/30428-shs-315-strategy-how-use-if-effectively.html

Entries are simple, you wait for a candle to close above 15 EMA, next candle to open and see if 3 EMA is above 15 EMA or not. If the answer is 'Yes' you go long. For shorts you need an exact opposite setup.

Position Sizing

Since in this system SL cannot be defined as a 'level' your initial position sizing has to be small. Depending on the trading capital, you dont want to put more than 25% capital which you want to put in this trade in as the first trade i.e assume if you can trade a total of 4 lots max, you will start with 1 lot. Rest 3 lots we will add later as our position moves into profit.

Pyramiding

Pyramiding or 'adds' are obviosly done once our position has 'swung' into profits. The rule is we add when the markets correct after a swing, price comes and touched 15 EMA again (but 3 EMA hasnt crossed over). This means that we add very close to our SAR hence keeps the risk small and also ensures that even if SAR is triggered we still end up in net profits (since our initial position is in profits hopefully now).

Exits

Yes, we do exit at certain points even when our SAR is not hit. These exit points are obviously when our position is suddenly in deep profits becuase of an extreme rally or crash in our favour. The exit points are where you find our 'current' EOD candle is not touching 3 EMA at all. On this candle, we book profits and wait for markets to correct back and touch 3 EMA again. As soon as 3 EMA is touched we jump back into our initiaal position. So in a way we stay with our position, we just exit it once and get back in after a small correction.

I would let you guys analyse, examine and apply these rules to some of the trades which you have identified. I am also posting an NF chart below showing entries, Pyramids or 'adds', Exit and jump back in and finally SAR.

For Basics and some Background on 315

(C) content copied from Traderji Forum Credit to SH source link http://www.traderji.com/technical-analysis/30428-shs-315-strategy-how-use-if-effectively.html
315 is a simple swing technique which tries to identify a trend very early. In this strategy we use only EMAs name EMA 3 & EMA 15 (hence the name 315).

People ask me why EMA 3 and EMA 15 .... for me last 3 days define the immediate average price ... to find the slightly longer term trend i use the factor of 5. This is becuase 5 has an interesting relevance to markets.... we have approx 5 hours of trading everyday, 5 trading days in a week, almost 5 trading weeks in a month .... So I simply multiple 3 by 5 to get my 15 EMA which defines my medium term average price.

Now in simple terms, if our immediate average price is higher than the medium term average price that means we are entering in a bull swing ... and visa versa. Hence the strategy entries are:

1 Enter Long when 3 EMA goes above 15 EMA
2 Enter Short when 3 EMA goes below 15 EMA

Advantages of following 315 strategy

1. A simple technique using just 2 EMAs, no other oscilattors or indicators required. NO advanced charting softwares required.

2. System is based on following the ULTIMATE indicator available i.e price action.

3. Keeps a trader in the trend, lets the full swing to complete. Never gets a trader against the trend.

4. Since we are just following price action, we dont need to worry about divergences etc.

Disadvantages of 315 Strategy

1. Works brilliantly in a trending market but can whipsaw in extremely ranging markets. However this can be overcome by certain rules and money management to be explained later in this thread.


So this is what the strategy is folks, do some chart reading and see how it works on EOD charts. Do post any questions you have here.

I will come back to talk about Step 2 again.

Keep an eye on Nifty charts, 315 is going to generate a signal soon... dont miss.

Cheers

Exponential Moving Average - EMA

What Does Exponential Moving Average - EMA Mean?
A type of moving average that is similar to a simple moving average, except that more weight is given to the latest data. The exponential moving average is also known as "exponentially weighted moving average".

Investopedia explains Exponential Moving Average - EMA
This type of moving average reacts faster to recent price changes than a simple moving average. The 12- and 26-day EMAs are the most popular short-term averages, and they are used to create indicators like the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) and the percentage price oscillator (PPO). In general, the 50- and 200-day EMAs are used as signals of long-term trends.

Introduction

Hi Friends, i am going to post my experience in trading using "sh 315 strategy", which is actually developed By SH, i learned this strategy from Traderji Forum.

Actual Link to Forum : SH 315 Strategy

All credit Goes to Tradewithhunter